COVID Variants on the Way?

It is now a year into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic where we began locking down the United States. Churches, restaurants, health care facilities, general retail, schools, and entertainment were sidelined for much of 2020 and even 2021. We have struggled to understand the new coronavirus strain and predicting how the pandemic will progress. Now that Americans are getting the revolutionary vaccine, we might be facing a new wave fueled by COVID variants.

Lockdowns and Mandates haven't worked

There is so much evidence right now that shows that the virus spreads and bursts into regional epidemics independent of local measures to contain it. This doesn't mean that masks do not work for individuals to prevent infection or protect others. However, it is pretty clear that laws don't affect containment much in the spread of the virus. Comparing states to one another shows that there is little difference in the extent of outbreaks based on their policies - but more dependent on where the state is located. California, Arizona, and Nevada have infection curves,  deaths, and hospitalizations just about the same as far as timing despite having dramatically different policies, rules, and regulations.

The Vaccines Have Changed the Game  But Not Where We're Going

Just as we have discussed in previous shows, SARS-CoV-2 will become the fifth endemic coronavirus and we will deal with it for the rest of our lives. Also, we may speculate that like other coronavirus infections, we will have waning neutralizing immunity and become infected many times by this coronavirus. However, it is also probable that we will retain latent partial immunity relegating the virus to a harmless cold especially as kids grow up to be adults. Likely, this coronavirus will just be a nuisance for future generations.

We Need to Open Up in a Few Months

Once all Americans have had an opportunity of getting vaccinated, it will be time to remove all restrictions on life in the US. This should be mid-summer. There will still be plenty of people getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 for months but the likelihood of swamping the hospitals will diminish over time. The only caveat is that children will not be able to get vaccinated until the Fall (at the earliest) so they will still be getting mini-epidemics. Fortunately, children do not seem to be affected very often in getting as sick and at risk of serious illness.