Episode 096: From Pandemic to Endemic – How COVID-19 Will Get There.

Following our discussion last week where we discussed the probable lower herd immunity rate threshold for COVID-19, today we are going to discuss the transition from a global pandemic to endemic state for the virus. This makes one fundamental assumption - that COVID-19 isn't going to go away, ie, it won't get eradicated. The reasons to suspect this are all around us in that almost no viruses have been eradicated. Also, there are already four other coronaviruses that are endemic in humans that cause the common cold. Most probably, this virus will slowly evolve over years into one that s more benign and all of us will develop at lease partial immunity so it will be like a cold.

The reasons we can be fairly confident that this is the eventual state of the virus is explained by my guest, Dr. David Graham. Dr. Graham is an infectious disease specialist who has been writing extensively on the course of COVID-19 and its direction. We begin the episode with him laying out the evidence for the virus not ever being eradicated and we then transition into a deeper discussion into what the end game is for the virus.

The course of the pandemic in some ways is not very dependent on the presence or absence of a vaccine. Whether or not we have a vaccine there is a very high likelihood that those at risk (the elderly who are sick) will contract this at some point because the vaccine will probably not be effective at stopping every transmission. Also, the vaccine will likely not provide great lasting immunity and its limited effectiveness will mean that the chance of people 'catching it' will always be present.

However, the presence of herd immunity within the community will keep the virus from growing exponentially and only small limited regional outbreaks will occur. Unfortunately, this is very likely the state of affairs throughout the world for a number of years. At some point, we will have to accept the fact that the virus is present, you will have a decent chance of getting it (even if you're vaccinated) and we will need to stay vigilant of our vulnerable populations to avoid overwhelming nursing homes, etc.