American Independence Day from COVID

We're talking about COVID and our American Independence Day from SARS-CoV-2 on June 1, 2021. There is some additional background information that we will leave off but I would suggest that you listen to episodes 101 and 114 for a deeper dive into the science.

The first thing I need you to do is look down and if you're wearing a red shirt, take it off. Not just one sleeve, take it all the way off. Likewise, if you're wearing a blue shirt, I need you to do the same thing. There are no red teams or blue teams here. We're just Americans.

We're also only discussing the US. The rest of the world is in a different situation than us in the United States.

It's time to open up because we have plenty of a really miraculous vaccine. The mRNA vaccines, I believe, will revolutionize many medical treatments going forward.

But the point is that right now we are entering the last phase of the transition from a pandemic/epidemic to endemic for this virus in our country.

Why do I say this? Aren't you still potentially at risk of reinfection or breakthrough infections if you've had the vaccine? Won't we still get outbreaks until we hit herd immunity?

Let's briefly talk about numbers. As of this recording, we are looking at 247 million vaccine doses administered in the US. That is 147 million who have had at least one dose and 105 million who are fully vaccinated (both doses). That is 44% and 31.8% of the entire US population respectively.

Further demographic breakdown comes to 56.3% of all adults (those 18 or older) have had at least one dose of the vaccine while 40% are fully vaccinated.

Of those elderly (65 and older) who we know are at the highest risk of morbidity and mortality, they have 82.8% with at least one dose and 69.7% fully vaccinated.

But we know that this is only part of the story with immunity. We also need to add in those who have had the infection and survived and now have immunity that we know is at least as good as the vaccine but probably better. A conservative estimate is between 20-30% of the American public has had COVID and recovered.

Factoring those numbers in puts us at 87% of the elderly have immunity and 67.2% of adults in the US.

We also know that reinfections or breakthroughs of the vaccine with COVID are usually much less severe and don't often lead to hospitalizations, ICU stays, and death.

So on June 1st, 2021 we should declare it as our American victory day over the virus.

All restrictions, mask mandates, lockdowns, gathering limits - all of it - should go away!

I don't care if you think the lockdowns worked or not - it doesn't matter.

I don't care if you think masks provide great protection or you refer to them as face diapers - it doesn't matter.

I don't care.

Those are debates we can (and should) have over the next few years.

But right now, we need to move forward together. No politics. No Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, Independents, whatever. Just as Americans.

You need to recognize a few things:

1. No matter what, there is no way to be 100% safe in life.
2. COVID will never, ever, ever go away. There are animal reservoirs and it will be with us forever as an endemic virus.
3. If you have been vaccinated or had the infection, you will almost certainly have significant immunity even with future infections - which will happen.
4. We will never reach 90% immunization rates of adults in the US unless we use force.
5. No future COVID outbreak will overwhelm our hospital systems at this point. They have not come close to being overrun like in some other countries and with the immunity rates, there isn't enough 'fuel' for the virus to infect at this point.
6. There will be other outbreaks and spikes. There will be further cases, hospitalizations, ICU stays, and even deaths.

As of today, any adult can easily obtain a full set of vaccines. Supply has now outstripped demand.

In fact, in a week from now, children down to the age of 12 will be eligible for the vaccine.

If everyone who wanted a vaccine goes, they will be vaccinated by the end of May.

This means that every person who wants real protection from the virus can have it.

And that means that all the reasons for restrictions will be gone.

Why do I say that?

Well, we've already established that you can't be 100% safe whether you've been vaccinated, previously infected, or not infected yet. No matter what, you can still get COVID.

But if you've had the vaccine or previous infection - you are unlikely to get as sick. If you're a kid, you rarely get very sick. It's almost lightning strike odds of becoming deathly ill.

Even if you are still very scared and fearful with immunity, you can always choose to avoid groups and situations that you perceive as more dangerous in getting infected.

But if you're vaccinated or had a previous infection, you should feel safe to move about in crowds, etc. There should no longer be a worry about starting a surge in cases locally that will overwhelm the hospitals. There shouldn't be as much of a concern for getting extremely sick.

And if some choose to get their immunity by getting infected (which will happen since SARS-CoV-2 is endemic) then that is their choice.

The rest of us shouldn't be restrained any longer. It is wrong. It is unnecessary. We need to declare our independence from this virus.

And if you believe we need to reach some specific vaccination rate - that isn't based on science.

That doesn't take into account the people who have naturally acquired immunity through infection. It would wildly underestimate the immunity rate within the community.

People who want real protection will be able to have it so we can go back to normal life. If folks decide to change their mind at some point, the vaccines will always be there for them to get.

There is no reason - scientific or epidemiological - to keep things shut down.

This is America. We don't hog-tie people and jab them in the arm. We persuade and let them do as they feel is best for them. Let them choose and live with the consequences of their decision.

So on June 1st, 2021 let's all declare our independence from COVID for good.

When it comes to children, I recognize your fear and understand your concern. Losing a child is the worst thing I can imagine happening to a parent.

I've lived it.

On August 15, 2018, I lost my 14 yo son Andy in a car accident to a distracted driver.

There was nothing I could do.

I understand the impulse to protect our kids. I understand the fear parents have. I understand the difficulty in making decisions without perfect information. It's agonizing.

But life, as I've learned, is sometimes brief and comes with no guarantees.

I had to decide early on if I would ever drive again. Driving is a very risky activity. I had to weigh the risks of driving in a car versus no participating in life. Would my children have fulfilling lives stuck at home? Not going to school, work, seeing friends, doing sports, or other activities? Would life be as rich? Would that be living?

Ultimately, we chose that risk and life. We are all faced with decisions that we have to make without knowing the future.

Most importantly, you will have to figure out where you set the boundaries for life and risk.

But this should not be a political decision. It is a personal one made by individuals.

Recognize that we all weigh these risks and benefits individually with imperfect knowledge so please respect others' choices whatever they may choose.

That is the defining principle of America.

Let's celebrate together the end to this pandemic on June 1st and we can go back to wearing our team blue and red shirts another day.